The path to the scenario: Drivers and course-setting

• Increasing dysfunctionality of the European institutions due to the targeted blockade policy of individual member states
• Reform efforts fail, escalation of political conflicts leads to cancellation of EU treaties; the euro as a common currency is history
• Reorientation of politics and companies under extremely difficult conditions

Scenario world 2030

As a result of the growing influence of Eurosceptic parties in the EU member states, there is an increasing number of national solo efforts. Court rulings by the ECJ to curb behaviour are sharply rejected by the respective nation states. The EU institutions are becoming increasingly dysfunctional, with fierce verbal battles between governments becoming the new normal. The disputes are fuelled by targeted fake news in social media, behind which the intelligence services suspect governments from non-EU third countries. Some EU states are even starting to make previously unthinkable military threats against each other. In order to prevent further escalation in this charged atmosphere, the European Commission proposes the cancellation of the EU treaties and an orderly dissolution of the European Union and the euro. This proposal is adopted unanimously in the European Council.

Turbulence after the resolution to dissolve the company

Immediately after the vote, however, there is turbulence during the dissolution, making an orderly liquidation impossible. France unilaterally introduces the franc, whereupon the Bundesbank reintroduces the Deutschmark virtually overnight. The abrupt reintroduction means that the Deutschmark is immediately 30% more expensive than the euro's southern European successor currencies. As with other historical dissolutions of cross-national currency alliances (e.g. Austria-Hungary, Yugoslavia, Soviet Union), this time too there is a sharp fall in wages. In order to prevent goods from becoming much more expensive or cheaper in neighbouring countries, European governments are also introducing a large number of new trade barriers and tariffs. In many places, this is accompanied by a revival of resentment in public discourse that was thought to have been overcome, fuelled by national press organs and the (social) media. The German economy is sliding into a recessionary spiral with declines of up to 15% of GDP. Tax revenues are collapsing and the social systems are being maintained on a makeshift basis via government bonds. At a geo-economic level, there is a race for bilateral trade agreements, particularly for energy supplies. Due to its relative size, Germany has more negotiating power than other European countries. Supplier networks and complex value chains, some of which have developed in Europe over decades and have become increasingly differentiated, thus enabling a high degree of specialisation at individual locations, are suddenly being lost.

Supply problems and protests

Delivery difficulties and supply bottlenecks, productivity losses, declining service quality, decreasing competition and rising storage and transport costs are the result. Prices for goods and services rise sharply. This is followed by mass redundancies, including in small and medium-sized enterprises - resulting in a massive loss of confidence in companies and entrepreneurship as such. This leads to loud protests outside company headquarters and production sites. Companies of all sizes, regions and sectors are confronted with massive legal uncertainty. To counter this, the German government - like other European countries - is transposing a large part of the EU regulations into national law in order to continue to guarantee a stable regulatory framework.

Rapid departure from established locations in Europe

Many (export-orientated) SMEs are considering relocating to non-European countries or even selling their failing companies, as many banks have also been left reeling by loan defaults. Investors from the USA, Canada, China, South Korea and the Gulf States are capitalising on this difficult economic situation to take over medium-sized industrial companies in Germany. In the course of these takeovers, there is an exchange of shareholders and management, which often results in the loss of the special corporate culture of German SMEs.