The path to the scenario: Drivers and course-setting

• Security policy as the nucleus for a new deeper EU integration
• European cooperation in key future fields as a strength
• Development leaps in AI and other technologies lead to high pressure to adapt
• "Euro-regional" attachment to home: openness towards cooperation and new locations in other EU countries

Scenario world 2030

In the face of new geostrategic realities driven by the ever faster withdrawal of the USA from Europe and a highly competitive, partly protectionist environment, the European Council is setting the course for deeper EU integration in order to ensure robust action and competitiveness. Under pressure from the new geostrategic realities, even more Eurosceptic governments are joining in, with the Weimar Triangle of France, Poland and Germany acting as the "engine" of development. The global economy is highly politicised, geostrategy and geoeconomics go hand in hand.

Strengthening resilience as the top priority

The new integration measures aim to strengthen resilience to external shocks and also improve investment conditions: This is achieved, for example, through the realisation of the Capital Markets Union and a coherent financial policy. The concept of strategic autonomy, which is often invoked by the EU Commission, aims to strengthen security of supply - for example in chip production or the expansion of renewable energies and grid expansion. In this context, there are always conflicts of interest between ecological and social issues, for example in the (re)opening of mines in Europe. The targeted promotion of circularity also serves both the European climate targets and the reduction of resource consumption as well as the strengthening of strategic autonomy.

At the same time, EU regulation aims to create a level playing field in the European single market and to equalise global distortions of competition. However, questions about the role and depth of intervention of the EU institutions and which sectors, as key industries, are the focus of the EU's own support are a constant source of controversy. Overall, however, market-based competition within the internal market is being strengthened: for example, the tax burden in the EU is becoming increasingly equalised and bureaucratic hurdles that hinder the free movement of goods, services, people and capital are gradually being removed.

New, cross-border value creation networks

An EU-wide strategy for the data economy, critical raw materials, industry, key technology ecosystems and the circular economy simplifies cross-company value creation. New value networks are emerging across the EU in border regions and, more recently, in industrial metaverses, with Germany's industrial SMEs playing a crucial role. Strong German value-added networks act as architects of cross-border European ecosystems - a close relationship with one's home country is increasingly being thought of in "euro-regional" terms, i.e. across regional borders.

The alliances translate future EU goals and standards, for example with regard to climate protection or responsible industrial AI, into new, competitive solutions. Dynamic developments in key technologies bring high pressure for SMEs to adapt. For innovative SMEs and technology leaders, however, there are also a number of new business opportunities in specific contexts that contribute to European resilience, security and sustainability goals. European companies are not only using AI, but are also developing powerful AI solutions themselves, often for highly specialised niche applications. At the same time, however, competition within Europe for skilled labour and company relocations is increasing sharply. This leads to recurring conflicts between some EU member states.

High location loyalty with simultaneous global networking

German SMEs are generally very loyal to their established locations and at the same time open to cooperation and new locations in other European countries. As a result, English is being introduced as a second working language in some places, facilitated by AI real-time translations. European innovation and value creation alliances are closely networked with selected global innovation centres - such as Singapore, India or new growth centres in Africa - and are considered pioneers there (in their niches). They rely on sustainable, reliable relationships with suppliers, customers and, in some cases, competitors within specific contexts in order to realise complete solutions for global markets.