The circular economy not only addresses structural risks in raw material supply but also unlocks substantial economic potential.
By systematically transforming towards circular value creation systems, German industry can reduce its dependence on primary raw materials, lower costs, cut emissions, and generate additional value added.
Against the backdrop of stagnant economic growth in particular, the circular economy is gaining strategic importance for resilience and competitiveness.
Circular Value Creation Could More Than Double by 2045
The circular economy offers significant additional value creation potential for Germany’s industrial base.
According to the study’s calculations, annual circular gross value added could increase from around €60 billion today to as much as €125 billion by 2045. Cumulatively, this corresponds to an additional economic potential of up to €880 billion.
This growth is primarily driven by more efficient material use, longer product lifecycles, increased value creation from circular raw materials, and new business models across the entire product lifecycle. At the same time, these effects are often accompanied by lower material costs and reduced emissions.
Resource Efficiency Enhances Supply Security
The analysis shows that recycling and reuse could replace between 20 and 40 percent of strategic raw material imports by 2045. As a result, circular value creation systems enable companies to permanently reduce their reliance on primary raw materials and decrease their exposure to volatile raw material markets. Closed material loops, enabled through measures such as reuse, repair, remanufacturing, and recycling, lead to more efficient use of existing resources and enhance supply security.
The Circular Economy Can Reduce the Costs of the Energy Transition
The circular economy has the potential to reduce the costs of the energy transition by nearly €40 billion.
In addition, it delivers a significant climate benefit: greenhouse gas emissions could be reduced by a further 11 million tonnes. The reuse and refurbishment of components for wind turbines, transformers, and batteries enable a more cost-efficient expansion of energy transition infrastructure and reduce dependence on critical raw materials.
As a result, the circular economy is far more than a sustainability issue and is evolving into a future-proof business model across many sectors.
Value creation is generated particularly where companies strategically manage material flows, scale up resource recovery processes, and competitively deploy circular raw materials.
More Value Creation Across the Entire Lifecycle
The Circular Economy Across the Value Chain
Take-away
The circular economy is an economic lever: it has the potential to more than double circular value creation by 2045 while significantly reducing dependence on primary raw materials. Through resource efficiency and new business models, it simultaneously strengthens the competitiveness, resilience, and growth of Germany’s industrial base.